ATIKU AND OBASEKI'S SELF-INFLICTED INJURIES: Lessons For Delta PDP

The political missteps of Atiku Abubakar and Godwin Obaseki should serve as cautionary tales for the People's Democratic Party (PDP) in Delta State. Each time the issue of unresolved tensions between key figures from the last administration and the incumbent governor, Sheriff Oborevwori, is mentioned, one cannot help but ponder the potential implosion of the Delta PDP and the end of an era in the state's political landscape.

A brief glance at the history of self-inflicted wounds within the PDP highlights two key failures that contributed to the party's decline. Atiku's inability to resolve the national chairmanship issue and Obaseki's mishandling of the governorship nomination process led to the PDP’s downfall in the 2023 presidential election and the loss of Edo State to the All Progressives Congress (APC) in the 2024 gubernatorial election. These failures showcase a persistent inability to manage internal disputes, a flaw that continues to plague the party.

Since the dawn of Nigeria's current democratic dispensation, Delta State has witnessed three transitions of power. However, the most recent handover is unique in its tone. While previous administrations did not view the State as a personal inheritance, the departing members of the last administration seem to believe otherwise. This sense of entitlement, fueled by greed and indiscretion, is evident in their actions. The notion of applying an "Ambode treatment" to Oborevwori—an attempt to oust a sitting governor as was done to former Lagos Governor Akinwunmi Ambode—is nothing short of arrogance.

This arrogance mirrors the hubris of past PDP leaders. Notably, former national chairman Prince Vincent Ogbulafor once boasted that the party would remain in power for 60 years, a statement that epitomized the reckless overconfidence of the party's leadership. Former President Goodluck Jonathan, too, attempted to perpetuate this reckless behavior but ultimately fell victim to his own miscalculations. In many ways, the PDP's consistent mismanagement and internal strife make it its own worst enemy, always on the brink of sabotaging its own success.

Fejiro Oliver’s recent analysis brings this issue to the fore. He observed that key figures from former Governor Ifeanyi Okowa's administration, individuals who wielded immense power, are already conspiring to undermine Oborevwori. Their aim is to orchestrate his political downfall in the next election if he continues to marginalize them. However, such efforts are fundamentally flawed. Delta State is not Lagos, and applying the Ambode treatment here will not yield the same results. Unlike Lagos, Delta has a strong opposition party ready to capitalize on any infighting within the ruling PDP.

What these disgruntled members are inadvertently applying is the "crabs in a bucket" mentality. This metaphor refers to the tendency of individuals or groups to undermine or sabotage others when they see them making progress, similar to how crabs in a bucket pull each other down when one tries to escape. In this case, rather than fostering unity and progress, these individuals are driven by envy and the belief that if they cannot succeed, neither should anyone else.

This destructive, zero-sum thinking is dangerous for the future of the PDP in Delta State. While these internal actors may believe that undermining Oborevwori will serve their interests, the reality is that such actions only weaken the party and leave it vulnerable to opposition forces. In a state where the political landscape is becoming increasingly competitive, this kind of infighting can be catastrophic.

At present, it remains unclear whether the PDP is learning from its past mistakes. The party's future, and indeed the future of democracy in Delta State, hangs in the balance. If the PDP fails to address its internal discord and continues down the path of self-sabotage, it risks not only losing its grip on power but also setting the stage for a broader political realignment in the state.

In conclusion, the lessons from Atiku and Obaseki's political miscalculations should not be lost on the Delta PDP. If the party hopes to maintain its relevance and strength, it must abandon the crabs in a bucket mentality, address internal grievances constructively, and focus on unity. Otherwise, it may find itself, once again, the architect of its own downfall.