The Al-Barnawi
faction of Boko Haram (aka ISWAP) has shown the obsolete Shekau faction how to
do the business of Jihad (I use the word "business" advisedly). It
has succeeded in getting the following with the Dapchi girls' abduction and
release:
1. Got all boarding
schools in the Borno-Yobe axis closed, a victory for its campaign against
Western education. With little or no Western schooling, the Northeast will
become an even bigger hotbed of radicalization.
2. Set back girl-child
education in the area by at least twenty years. After dropping them off, Boko
Haram spent at least twenty minutes preaching to the girls to abandon Western
education and "return to the path of Allah." They also dropped a
subtle warning: we released you to give you a second chance to shun Western
education and "return to the path of Allah," which of course they
define as incompatible with Western education. I would be shocked if those
girls' parents allowed them back into any Western/secular school again. Parents
of girls in the region are taking notes and may become wary of sending their
daughters--and sons--to secular schools.
3. They scored a huge
revenue haul, with an unconfirmed $20 million ransom payment. With this money,
the group has bought itself another five years worth of weapons with which to
challenge our soldiers, institutions, and cohesion.
4. They scored a major
public relations and propaganda victory, bonding with the people of Dapchi to
the point of being hailed and given a heroic farewell upon their departure from
the town.
This is precisely what
distinguishes Al-Barnawi from Shekau. The former is a sophisticated Jihadist
who wants to win the hearts and minds of the people of the Northeast and
convince them that his group can replace the decadent, secular government of
Nigeria with a just, magnanimous Islamic caliphate. The latter alienates them
with his murderous madness.
The takeaways are
simple:
1. With today's events,
Al-Barnawi has outmaneuvered Shekau and written himself into Jihadi lore in the
region.
2. Al-Barnawi is
infinitely more dangerous and more threatening to Nigeria's sovereignty than
Shekau, who is his own enemy and is wont to self-destruct. With today's
release, similar acts of pretend goodwill in the past, and by refraining from
wanton killings and embarking on community reassurance gestures, Al-Barnawi is
quietly normalizing and decriminalizing Boko Haram, or at least his faction of
it. His Jihad has the potential to become mainstreamed, rehabilitated, accepted
at the Muslim grassroots, and eventually naturalized. That would be a nightmare
scenario for Nigeria.
3. Our struggle with Boko
Haram is a long way from being over."
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