Indications
within the governing All Progressives Congress (APC) point to a feisty national convention against the backdrop of the hard stance adopted by governors, ministers and senators over the control
of structures within the party.
Barring any last
minute change of plans, the National Convention will hold on
Saturday, June 23, 2018. Investigations show that the conflict resolution mechanism
within the party has not been effective following the spate of conflicts that
trailed the congresses held at the ward, local government and state levels.
Checks revealed that the seeming disarray in the conflict
resolutionmechanisms of the party in the wake of the congresses might not augur well
for the party ahead of the convention.
So far, governors are
up against federal lawmakers or members of the party’s National Working
Committee (NWC) on the one hand, while ministers and other party
stakeholders have been locked in bitter tussle in states that are not
controlled by the APC on the other. Consequently, the ward congresses were
largely violent. Although the local government congresses were relatively less
turbulent, the state congresses were marred by parallel elections. In some
other states, the congresses did not hold as a result of court injunctions. But
the party, through its national publicity secretary, Bolaji Abdullahi, has
since warned that “the only congress recognised by the party is that conducted
in accordance with the party’s constitution, which was organised by the
congress committee charged by the party to organise such congress. “We
therefore regard any so-called parallel congresses as exercise in futility and
attempt to cause confusion in the party.
“We wish to reiterate
that any party member who has any genuine grievances regarding the congresses
should channel such through the Appeals Committee in their respective states.”
But fresh indications within the party show that the grievances which
culminated in the parallel congresses in most states have not been addressed
decisively enough by the party leadership heading into the June 23
national convention. The situation is further compounded by the
uncertainty surrounding the reconciliation efforts of the party’s national
leader and former Lagos State governor, Bola Tinubu. It was learnt that
the intrigues that led to the delay in holding congresses as part of the
build-up to the convention are yet to abate. Some state governors are
said to be uncomfortable with some members of the NWC from their states and had
wanted to weed them out through the convention beginning with the
earlier congresses.
The governors are
suspicious of the NWC members who they feel might not be representing their
interests well enough, amid a notion that they (NWC members) may be
working with rival interests to undermine second term ambitions, for those
serving their first term in office, or the succession plans of those whose
tenures will end by 2019. On the other hand, the governors have also been
consolidating their grip on party structures in the states where they have
running battles with federal legislators who are bent on seizing the structures
of the party. With the governors now included in
the convention planning as well as former governors who are now
senators, the move is meant to assuage fears that interests would not be
jeopardised. But allegations that some governors were not willing to hold any
congress as they are trying to give automatic waivers and endorsements to present
leaders presents another level of challenge.
The names of key
political figures on the list, is an assurance that they would still be
given not only the party leadership in their states but also the opportunity to
control party structures and produce delegates that would attend the congresses
and the national convention. After several back-channel negotiations, the
party’ national leadership released guidelines for the ward, local
government and state congresses.With this, the battle line was drawn and the
fallouts are still being experienced within the party and the polity as a
whole, a development that has threatened to open the lid on the pent-up anger
and internal struggle in the state chapters of the party nationwide.
Though the congresses are purely an APC affair, it has however taken a
semblance of a make-or-mar contest among the power blocs at different
layers within the leadership hierarchy, and the import of the congress and
attendant intrigues do not elude the party faithful, especially in the
state chapters of the party, where different forces seem poised for a
battle to the finish.
This, on a larger
scale, will have series of ripple effects on various levels of the party both
at national and state levels as the party finally heads to
the convention proper in June. Some of the following states are
expected to play a significant part in the June convention. Kano State The
fight is between the Gandujiyya and Kwankwasiyya factions, as the two
groups attempted to outdo each other during the last local government
election held in the state on the February 10. This fierce contest will last up
to the convention when it will be clear who has the upper hand. During
the last local government election, both the Kano State Independent Electoral
Commission (KANSIEC) and the Kwankwasiyya faction sold forms to some party
members interested in contesting for chairmanship and councillorship
positions. Despite the intervention of the national headquarters of the
party, which led to the appointment of Yahaya Karaye, an engineer, as chairman
of the party in the state, the Gandujiyya and Kwankwasiyya rivalry is still
playing a significant role in the politics of Kano.
The forces at play may
fight even dirtier at the convention ground. Oyo State In Oyo State,
the party is fragmented into three camps. At one level, there is a camp
loyal to Governor Abiola Ajimobi, known as SENACO, another group is loyal to
the former governor of the state, Alhaji Lam Adesina, known as Lamist Group,
while the third group is loyal to the minister of communication, Adebayo
Shittu. The May 12 local government election in the state was a source of discord.
Many in the leadership of the party have condemned the imposition of candidates
across the 33 LGAs of the state. The battle of wits is sure to play out during
the convention. Imo State The case in Imo presents an interesting
scenario. Stakeholders and key players in the state chapter of the party had
since been gearing up for a showdown in party’s congresses and
national convention.
Governor Rochas
Okorocha plans to impose his son-in-law, Uche Nwosu, as his successor while
some stakeholders are out to stop him. The congresses will
determine which of the contending forces has the upper hand in the fierce
scramble for the soul of the party ahead of the governorship primary. What has
been witnessed after this first round leaves little to the imagination as the
state congresses begin. Aggrieved party members stormed the party’s National
Secretariat in Abuja to argue that no congress held in Imo state, urging the
Oyegun-led NWC to wade in. If the congresses were meant to unite the
party at the state, it has succeeded in separating them and the battle will be
fought, probably, at the convention arena. Lagos State In
Lagos, alignment and re-alignment of forces are currently going
on among party stalwarts, members and political caucuses. Even though it is an
open secret that the national leader of the party, Bola Tinubu, still holds the
aces as per the party’s machinery, there are moves, especially among those who
are considered as “Abuja-based” and those of the legacy parties to strike deals
capable of giving them some political mileage as things gradually unfold.
This state and her
delegates will however play an important role in the election of key national
officers of the party. It is a must-watch. Adamawa State In Adamawa State, it
is the battle for the control of the party machinery between Governor Muhammadu
Jibrila and a group led by former Governor Murtala Nyako. It will be
interesting to see who blinks first, at the convention. Plateau State In
Plateau State, the battle for the soul of the party is a straightforward fight
between Governor Simon Lalong and the Minister of Sports, Solomon Dalung. The
two have been trading words over who controls the party in the state. How this
will affect the convention will be seen in the coming days. Bauchi
State In Bauchi, the feud between Governor Mohammed Abdullahi Abubakar and the
state party leadership on the one hand and federal lawmakers and other
aggrieved members of the party on the other has aggravated the situation ahead
of the congresses.
Before the ward and
local government congresses, Governor Abubakar held series of meetings with
party delegates from all the 20 LGAs in the state, a move that many
stakeholders saw as positioning himself to have a firm grip over the outcome
far and above the “Abuja politicians”. With the deputy governor of the state
resigning, the convention will be a melting pot for the supremacy battle. The
convention will be final litmus test as the party moves to the all important
convention ahead of the 2019 general elections.
The state congresses
presented a chance to make amends. Efforts to get a reaction on the state of
affairs in the party from the national publicity secretary, Malam Bolaji
Abdullahi, were unsuccessful as he neither picked phone calls, nor replied text
messages sent to him. With the June 23 national convention fast approaching,
the ruling APC seems not to have been able to resolve the internal crises that
predated the party congresses in the states, not to talk of those that erupted
from the last ward to state congresses. It has little time yet to wave the magic
wand and emerge as united front at the national convention.
Leadership
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