Arguably, Nigeria has never had
it so bad. About 9 months to a presidential election, the aspirants are not
known. The political atmosphere is not charged or astir. Consultations, if any,
are done in low and hushed tones. The electorates do not know what to expect
from those who will want to govern them because nothing has been said or
promised.
There is no flurry of activities
in the political parties especially the opposition parties that should keep the
ruling party on its toes. Does it mean the ruling Peoples Democratic Party
(PDP) and President Goodluck Jonathan are doing well? If not, who is going to
stop them? What will the person or party do differently for Nigeria and Nigerians?
7 months to election, who and
where are the presidential aspirants? There is loud silence in the polity less
than three months to the beginning of presidential primaries. Does it mean that
the political class and would-be candidates are taking the electorates for
granted?
It has not always been like this.
Several months before the April 21, 2007 presidential polls won by late
President Umaru Musa Yar’Adua of the PDP with Dr Goodluck Jonathan as vice
president, the polity was awash with a horde of aspirants, who criss-crossed
the length and breadth of the country consulting stakeholders and seeking
endorsements.
They were upbeat to succeed
President Olusegun Obasanjo, whose perceived Third Term Agenda was shot down by
the Senate President Ken Nnamani-led National Assembly with the support of
Nigerians.
The aspirants included most of the governors, who were doing their second term then. We had Vice President Atiku Abubakar; former Military President, Ibrahim Babangida; Zamfara State Governor, Alhaji Ahmed Sani Yerima and his Abia State counterpart, Orji Uzor Kalu. Among those whose aspirations were not in doubt and whose political moves electrified the polity included Dr. Peter Odili, then governor of Rivers of State and General Muhammadu Buhari of the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP).
As of July 2010, about nine
months to the April 16, 2011 presidential elections, many aspirants had
emerged, declaring their readiness to do political battle with President
Jonathan. Within the ruling PDP, Gen. Babangida had declared his intention.
There were also the likes of
Atiku Abubakar; then Kwara State Governor, Dr Bukola Saraki; and General
Muhammed Gusau (rtd). Among the opposition parties, those whose aspirations
were known included Mr. Donald Duke, the former governor of Cross River State,
who was warming up to fly the flag of Labour Party; Otunba Dele Momodu of the
National Conscience Party (NCP); Malam Nuhu Ribadu of the Action Congress of
Nigeria (ACN) and General Muhammadu Buhari of the Congress for Change (CPC)
among others.
Even President Jonathan declared
his intention on September 18, 2010, about seven months to the election. But
things are different now despite early release of the 2015 election timetable
by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).
With the INEC fixing February 14,
2015, seven months away as the date for the presidential election, one would
have expected that the political climate would be turbo-charged now with
hundreds of aspirants showing interest to remove President Jonathan from Aso
Rock.
One expected the PDP, All
Progressives Congress (APC), Labour Party (LP) and All Progressives Grand
Alliance (APGA), etc, to have commenced the process of producing their
presidential candidates. It appears that the coast is almost clear for PDP’s
Jonathan, who has not even declared his intention against the backdrop that the
House of Representatives caucus of the PDP endorsed him, this week, for second
time, with the PDP Governors, National Executive Committee (NEC), Board of
Trustees (BoT) and others to follow, thereby clearing the political bush for
the president.
2015 election timetable.
According to a breakdown of the timetable of activities for the elections as contained in a document signed by INEC’s Secretary, Mrs. Augusta Ogakwu, the presidential primaries of the various parties should be held between October 2 and December 11 while campaigns for the election will commence November 16.The dates are in line with the provisions of the Electoral Act 2010.
Campaigns for presidential and
National Assembly elections will commence on November 16, 2014 while campaigns
for governorship and state houses of assembly will start on November 30, 2014.
According to INEC, campaigns for presidential and National Assembly elections would end on February 12, 2015 while those of governorship and state houses of assembly would stop on February 26, 2015 and February 28, 2015 respectively.
With political activities so dull
7months to the election, Saturday Vanguard asked politicians and stakeholders
what the scenario portends for the polity. APGA is not focusing on the
presidency now –Umeh. Reacting to the development, Chairman, APGA, Chief Victor
Umeh, said that his party was for now concentrating on governorship, state
houses of assembly and National Assembly elections and not the presidency
because that requires so much resources.
He said: “Who are the
presidential candidates of the other 24 parties? We are interested in building
our party with more governorship, National Assembly and State Assembly
victories across the country in the 2015 general elections! A Presidential
election is not a local government election. You need much resources to
contemplate participation. When we muster enough strength, we will join the
contest. But, we shall play a major role in determining who wins the
presidential election in 2015 through alliance engagement.”
Politicians‘re not taking voters
for granted –Ben Obi. Asked if politicians were not taking voters for granted
with their approach, Special Adviser to the President on Inter-Party Affairs,
Senator Ben Obi said, “I don’t agree with you. INEC has a time table and you
have to follow the time table.” When told that campaigning is different from
signifying intention to run, he said: “But you have to follow the time table.
If somebody wants to run and he is consulting quietly, how would you know? I
know of people who have interest. Running for presidential election is not a
child’s affair. For you to go into the presidential race you have to consult to
be sure of what is on the ground.
You have to have a structure. APC
thought it was easy but as you can see they are now facing their own internal
wrangling. If they don’t sort that out now before going to talk about, who will
fly the flag of the party, your guess is as good as mine. Even in the PDP, we
are doing some reconciliation.
As you can see the National
Chairman who people refer as the game changer is moving around and he has
brought some innovations, which are making the party come alive by trying to
make sure that he reaches out. Fortunately for him, he has been a governor and
most of these problems emanate from governors that want you to do this or that.
But at the end of the day they
are leaders of their various states. So, they have found their equal match and
colleague in Ahmed Muazu. So it makes things much easier.”
...Why our politicians are timid
–Odumakin. Asked a similar question, Mr.Yinka Odumakin, a leader of Afenifere
and a delegate at the confab, said he does not think the presidential aspirants
were taking voters for granted. His words: “I do not think so. I think what is
happening is that the country is unsettled with bombings, killings and crises.
If you have a thinking political class, next election should not be the issue
now. How do you want to conduct a successful election in seven months’ time in
the midst of these?
“In Ekiti, we saw many things.
Yes, the election was peaceful but how many soldiers and police did you deploy
there? How many will you deploy all over the country in a general election?
“First, we have to settle 2014
and resolve the future of Nigeria before 2015 election. If those who want to
scuttle the National Conference report succeed and we are talking about going
for election next year, then we are going for war… that is why politicians are
timid. We know the presidential aspirants but they cannot come out because the
water is not settled, it is muddled. And the water is not going to clear unless
we address the issues about the future of Nigeria.”
...Scenario is amazing –Victor
Attah. In his contribution, former Governor of Akwa Ibom State, Obong Victor
Attah, who described the scenario as amazing, stressed that the PDP and APC are
simply the same as they are only politicking while the country was being
underdeveloped.
...Activities ‘ll pick up next
month –Kumo
Commenting on the matter, former
Special Adviser on Election Matters to past PDP National Chairman, Alhaji
Bamanga Tukur, and a delegate at the National Conference, Senator Saidu Umar
Kumo, said there was a little bit of maturity in the entire political system. According
to him, in past people used to come out early because there was no fixed date,
but what obtains now is that INEC has released the election time table, adding,
“since the time is known with the released timetable, from August, all
political parties will come up and political activities would then kick off. It
is not too late, people will build on this.”
...I’m worried –Zoro. Former
President of the Nigeria Union of Journalists, NUJ, and a delegate at the
National Conference, Sani Zoro said: “My worry is that Nigeria is no longer a
law and order country. Some aspirants in some places had since launched their
campaigns in the open, contrary to INEC guidelines. Yet, the so-called
independent commission cannot bring them to book. I am not optimistic about
rancour-free or free and fair elections in 2015.”
...PDP’s candidate is known,
we’re waiting for the opposition –Okon. On his part, a delegate representing
Akwa Ibom State at the National Conference, Senator Aniete Okon said: “In PDP,
the President has the conventional right of first refusal (to be the
presidential candidate.) The party without excluding any other aspirant must in
the manner of universal convention of parties in most democratic realms invite
the incumbent to bear the party’s standard into an election on the incumbent’s
record.
“In The PDP, we believe that Mr.
President has more than made the mark. His record, given the distractions posed
by the concert of dark intrigues that spawned hydra-headed conflicts and
consequential breaches of security and eroded our sovereignty commends Mr.
President to justifiably to present himself for re-election. In the PDP, there
is no credible aspiration that will be worth a passing glance. We are ready. It
is the opposition that has the daunting task of housekeeping to sort themselves
and establish something akin to order.”
...The opposition should come up
with alternatives –Nwagwu. In like manner, Ezenwa Nwagwu, Chairman, Partners
for Electoral Reform and a delegate to the National Conference said: “For the
position party, there is no pretending about who their (PDP) candidate will be.
As it stands today even aspiration is criminalised and they started third party
campaign, mobilization and group endorsements.
Worrying, however, is the
opposition party, who in my view, should have unveiled their candidate
considering that they may be bogged down by possible acrimonious convention.
Therefore, they will need good time to get that behind to face the general
election.”
...Prospective aspirants are in
order –Okoye. In his contribution, a constitutional lawyer and a delegate at
the National Conference, Festus Okoye, said: “Parties and their candidates are
products of the law and the Constitution. Their fidelity must be to the
constitution and the law. Credible and transparent elections are therefore
anchored on respect for the rule of law and due process.
”By the provisions of section 99
of the Electoral Act, 2010 (as amended), political parties and their candidates
shall only commence what the laws refer to as Public Campaigns 90 days before
polling day and end 24 hours prior to that day. ”Furthermore, political parties
and their candidates shall campaign for elections in accordance with such rules
and regulations as may be determined by the Commission.
This is also based on the fact
that by section 30 of the Electoral Act, 2010 (as amended) the Independent
National Electoral Commission shall, not later than 90 days before the day appointed
for holding of an election under the Act publish a notice in each state of the
Federation and the Federal Capital Territory stating the date of the election.
Candidates of political parties
will therefore only emerge after the political party primaries held in
accordance with section 87 of the Electoral Act. What we have as at present are
aspirants. ”The aspirants can engage in in-house consultation, lobbying,
positioning, negotiation and endorsement. They remain aspirants and cannot in
law campaign in public. So, the dearth of aspirants as at today is not a minus
for the electoral process. Rather, it enhances the position that public
officers should concentrate on the art of governance rather than running up and
down campaigning when the time is not ripe.
”However, it will be naïve to
pretend that political campaigns have not started or that we do not know the
aspirants and or the candidates that may likely be in the race in 2015.
Watching the television, listening to the radio and driving around the major
cities one sees a galaxy of billboards, posters, handbills and paintings on the
wall extolling the virtues of one aspirant or the other.
”My take is that candidates must
comply with the law relating to public campaigns. My second take is that candidates
can only emerge on compliance with section 87 of the Electoral Act. My final
take is that the Nigerian people already know the likely presidential
candidates as most of them have been doing underground campaigns.”
...We’re following the electoral law
–Okechukwu. For Osita Ikechukwu, National Publicity Secretary, Conference of
Nigeria Political Parties, CNPP, activities are ongoing except that they are
not full-scale because of the electoral law. He said that with the way and
manner messages are carried out on President Jonathan, there clear indications
that he is the candidate of the PDP.
According to him, Nigerian
Television stations are awash with programmes and advertorial on President
Goodluck Jonathan comparing him with late Nelson Mandela; President Barack
Obama of the United States of America, USA, among others, just as he said that
meetings take place every day with groups and associations, adding that at the
local level, activities are also on with governorship aspirants, senatorial
aspirants and others showing interest.
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