Brookings Institute, the World’s most influential think-tank based in the
United States, have projected a President Jonathan victory over the opposition
candidate’s General Buhari in the 2015 Elections which it
suggests would be keenly contested.The analysis, context and rationale of the think-tank’s
projections is contained in the Brookings publication titled: Foresight Africa
– Top Priorities for the continent (January 2015).
“Though the election is expected to be
very competitive, the odds still favor President Jonathan.’ According to
Brookings, the All Progressives Congress (APC) is a fragile anti-Jonathan
establishment with a sole purpose to return power to the north. “The party is, however, a fragile one that seems united only in
its quest to wrest the presidency from Jonathan or to have power “returned” to
the north”
“The APC gets much of its strength from tapping into anti-Jonathan
sentiments in the Muslim north and grievances among the Yoruba who feel that
the Jonathan administration has ignored them in key political appointments.”
The Report also indicated that the APC’s strategy is hinged on a
combination of popular votes from the North West, North East and “the
battleground SouthWest” but also hinted at the possibility of Bola Ahmed Tinubu
not delivering the region contrary to speculations.
“Tinubu indicated his interest in being the
party’s vice presidential candidate but being a Muslim like Buhari, the party’s
strategists felt that a Muslim-Muslim ticket might offend Christians and cement
the PDP’s labeling of the APC as an Islamic party.”
On President Jonathan’s performance: “despite
Boko Haram—the country is thriving: The economy continues to grow and—with the
re- basing of its GDP—became the largest economy in Africa and the 26th largest
in the world. Jonathan’s supporters also point to his success in containing the
Ebola virus, which earned him commendations from countries and institutions
around the world.” The Brookings Report also identified factors such as incumbency
and numerical control of States where PDP has 21 States and APC only 14 as
giving PDP an edge.
“The greatest strength of the ruling PDP is its “power of
incumbency,” and all the institutional support that goes with it. Not only does
it have federal resources to use as patronage, it also controls key
institutions” The report advised that all efforts should be deployed to
ensure a free, fair and transparent elections and to avoid a meltdown as
post-election violence seems very likely.
“Post-election violence is therefore likely in the north if the
APC loses while renewed militancy in the restive Niger Delta is likely if
Jonathan does.” the report noted.
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