THE PARADOX OF DEFECTION AND SURVIVAL BY PARTY MEMBERS

A dog following a man with bulging stomach is full of expectation, for he will either stool or vomit for the dog to lap up. That describes the paradox of defection from one party to another in Nigeria.

A few years back, the PDP enjoyed the boom of defections when the going was good. In the current trend, she suffers a reversal of that fate.

Like our elders once said, you may be expecting the dry leaf to fall only for the green leaf to do so. I am of the conviction that, going forward, the All Progressives Congress may wither and wilt, while the seemingly dying Peoples Democratic Party, like the proverbial phoenix, may reinvent herself.

I am not persuaded by the one-way traffic of defections to the APC, to believe, or conclude, the party is healthy and thriving. Like speed, obesity kills. And believe me if you will, the APC is more than obese.

Let’s attempt a forecast of tomorrow for the writing is on the wall. Senator Ahmed Bola Tinubu, the National Leader of the APC is still nursing deep seated wounds that have been remorselessly inflicted on him, by disparate and contending forces that were annexed into the APC at formation. He will reassert himself come 2019. Already, he has hinted that, he will run for the Presidency if the conditions are right.

As I can see, President Muhammadu Buhari who was the binding figure that stitched the party together is gradually getting out of the picture. In a few months, the mother of all battles for the soul of the APC will blow open. When this happens, we will see who stays and what happens with the APC.

Don’t forget, nobody can rein in the ambition of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar to become President of Nigeria. Others like former Kano governor Musa Kwakwanso, current Kaduna governor, Nasiru El’Rufai, Sokoto governor, Aminu Tambuwal, Senate President Bukola Saraki and the far Northern flank of the APC will spoil for a showdown if the Afenifere South West bloc of the party dare to put forward a candidate come 2019.

Even the South-Eastern caucus of the APC have begun to find their voice to be given a chance in the party. The battle for the party’s ticket will be messy and implosive. You can bank on that, believe me. The casualties will lead a major revolt of realignment of forces and APC will disperse from the centre.

Once this happens, new parties will break out of its womb. Is that good news for the PDP? I don’t think so yet. The PDP on the other hand must reinvent her narrative and show a new identity. There will be an exodus from the APC as presently constituted, which will morph into a third force. Then, the three parties will go head-to-head. That is what I see tomorrow. Where that leads, I can’t tell.

Howbeit, the defections from party A to party B is not healthy for our democracy. Those who defect are doing so to seek greener pastures, not for ideological reasons. Ultimately, it is good for all birds to fly as the sky is wide enough for each to find its altitude.

Folks, live and let live. That’s what I say to both APC and PDP. Let the defections continue, what goes up, must surely come down. In his book Arrow of God, Professor Chinua Achebe (peace on his ashes) told us of the scheme of Ezeulu, the embattled Priest of Ulu to his son, Oduche, when faced with the threat of the Whiteman’s religion. Hear Ezeulu, “‘The world is changing,’ he had told him. ‘I do not like it. But I am like the bird eneke-nti-oba. When his friends asked him why he was always on the wing he replied: “Men of today have learnt to shoot without missing and so I have learnt to fly without perching.” I want one of my sons to join these people and be my eye there.

If there is nothing in it you will come back. But if there is something there you will bring home my share. The world is like a Mask dancing. If you want to see it well you do not stand in one place. My spirit tells me that those who do not befriend the white man today will be saying had we known tomorrow.”

Folks, that is the philosophy of defection. Those going to APC today, do so because the APC is like the Whiteman who must be befriended to avoid regret tomorrow. Just that, if in the end, nothing comes out of it as ‘My share’, they will find their way back to wherever their belly directs.