The date may not yet be circled on the calendar, but the countdown to Nigeria’s 2027 general elections has already begun. Across party headquarters, private residences, and power corridors, alignments are forming and reforming. Familiar gladiators are sharpening their rhetoric; new aspirants are testing their strength. Yet beneath the visible choreography of ambition lies a quieter, more dangerous campaign, one that threatens to reduce the democratic process to a hollow ritual.
It is not merely a contest for votes. It is a battle for belief.
Nigeria has a trust problem. And it is a crisis that touches every nerve of the nation’s political soul.
INEC and the Technology of Distrust
At the epicentre of this seismic lack of faith sits the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). For decades, the Commission has served as the referee in Nigeria’s high-stakes electoral contests. But increasingly, its whistle is met not with acceptance but with suspicion.
From the “do-or-die” politics of earlier eras to the technological complexities of modern elections, public perception has grown steadily grim. Innovations introduced to enhance credibility, such as the Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) and the INEC Result Viewing Portal (IReV) were designed to fortify transparency. Instead, each logistical delay, each malfunction, each sluggish upload has often been interpreted not as an operational hiccup but as evidence of manipulation.
In a nation already scarred by disputed outcomes, technology has not automatically produced trust. For many Nigerians, it has merely digitised doubt.
Independence, after all, is not only about institutional autonomy. It is about public perception. It is about being perceived as impartial. At this critical juncture, INEC appears to be losing the public relations battle.
A Hydra-Headed Distrust
Yet distrust in Nigeria’s electoral ecosystem is not one-sided. If the public doubts the umpire, the umpire doubts the players.
Each electoral cycle increasingly resembles an arms race. Biometric verification is introduced to curb multiple voting; politicians allegedly respond by purchasing Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs). Digital portals are deployed to ensure real-time transparency; there are allegations of attempts to compromise the process before figures are publicly uploaded. The system tightens; ingenuity seeks new loopholes.
This is no longer a collaborative democratic enterprise. It is a cat-and-mouse contest between integrity and subversion, where innovation meant to protect the vote is matched by innovation designed to undermine it.
Caught in this duel is the ordinary Nigerian voter, stranded in the crossfire of elite manoeuvring.
Fragile Alliances, Fragile Democracy
The crisis of trust does not end with the electoral umpire. It permeates the political class itself.
Alliances are often cobbled together not on ideology or policy coherence but on patronage and convenience. They fracture as swiftly as they are formed. A primary election victory is frequently followed by a cascade of defections, as defeated aspirants cross carpets in pursuit of relevance. The handshake on the campaign trail is too often followed by the dagger of litigation at the tribunal.
Politics, stripped of principle, becomes purely transactional. Agreements are written in sand. Loyalty is provisional. Stability becomes hostage to the shifting calculations of political godfathers and their networks.
In such an environment, elections are less about competing visions for Nigeria’s future and more about negotiating access to power.
Citizens and the State: The Foundational Crack
Ultimately, these cascading layers of distrust converge on the most consequential relationship of all: that between the Nigerian citizen and the Nigerian State.
Here, the prognosis is most dire.
Millions of eligible voters increasingly stay home on election day, convinced that their ballots are footnotes in a pre-written conclusion. Among the youth, cynicism has hardened into near fatalism. Politics is widely perceived as a closed game, engineered to circulate power within an elite class while insecurity festers and infrastructure deteriorates.
When a young Nigerian asks, “Does my vote count?”, it is not simply a procedural question. It is an existential one. It asks whether their voice matters. Whether their future is considered. Whether the nation can work for them rather than against them.
This is not apathy born of indifference. It is apathy born of disappointment.
Democracy Without Trust
A democracy without trust is a body without an immune system. It becomes vulnerable to the virus of authoritarian temptation, to the fever of post-election violence, and to the slow decay of legitimacy.
When citizens lose faith in the electoral process, they inevitably lose faith in the governments it produces. And when faith in government collapses, the very idea of the nation begins to fracture.
Elections may still be conducted. Ballot papers may be printed. Results may be announced. But legitimacy cannot be manufactured by procedure alone. It must be earned through credibility.
The path to national progress is paved not merely with sound policies, but with the collective belief that those policies emerged from a process that was fair, transparent, and credible.
Rebuilding the Cathedral of Trust
As 2027 approaches, Nigeria’s challenge is not merely logistical. It is not only about ensuring adequate ballot materials or functional accreditation machines. It is existential.
It is the monumental task of rebuilding a cathedral of trust brick by shattered brick.
For INEC, this means not only strengthening internal systems but embracing radical transparency. Communication must be proactive, not reactive. Accountability must be swift and visible. Independence must be demonstrated, not assumed.
For the political class, it demands something rarer: restraint. A willingness to subordinate short-term tactical gains to the long-term survival of the democratic system they all depend on. A recognition that a system perpetually manipulated will eventually collapse on its manipulators.
For citizens, it calls for vigilant engagement, holding institutions accountable, demanding reforms but also resisting the seductive ease of total disengagement. Democracy is weakened not only by fraud but by fatalism.
Until Nigeria heals this fractured faith, it will continue to hold elections without fully building democracy. The referees will blow the whistle. The players will take the field. The stadium will fill.
But the game will unfold in the deafening silence of a people who have stopped believing the score.
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