In Nigeria’s political theatre, power is never contested on a single stage. It unfolds in layers. What appears to be a straightforward electoral contest is often a rehearsal for a deeper succession drama.
As 2027 approaches, Nigeria is not witnessing one political struggle but three: The visible presidential battle. The shadow campaign for 2031. And an intra-northern rivalry quietly shaping both.
At the centre of this layered contest sit President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, his National Security Adviser Nuhu Ribadu, and former Kaduna governor Nasir El-Rufai, three actors operating within different timelines but converging toward the same future question: who controls 2031?
2027: Tinubu’s Fortress and the Politics of Sequencing
The 2027 presidential race is shaping into a familiar tableau. Tinubu, armed with incumbency and the machinery of the All Progressives Congress, stands as the dominant figure. Federal leverage, party discipline, and strategic appointments reinforce what may best be described as a political fortress.
Across the aisle, Atiku Abubakar of the African Democratic Congress remains persistent, embodying both opposition resilience and its fragmentation. The lingering energy of the Labour Party’s 2023 insurgency still hovers over the landscape, though its structural durability remains uncertain.
But beneath the surface, 2027 is not merely about defeating Tinubu. It is about sequencing power.
For many northern power brokers, Tinubu’s re-election does something crucial: it postpones the northern presidency to 2031 under the unwritten zoning equilibrium. That delay is not a loss, it is preparation time.
In that sense, Tinubu’s second term becomes a holding pattern, stabilizing the board while northern contenders quietly consolidate for the next decisive round.
2031: The Northern Clock Is Already Ticking
If 2027 is tactical, 2031 is existential.
By then, rotation logic and demographic weight are expected to tilt power northward. And within that expectation lies the real contest: not whether the north returns to power, but who embodies that return.
This is where the rivalry between Ribadu and El-Rufai becomes structurally significant—not as gossip, but as geometry.
Both men are northern technocrats with reformist reputations. Both once wore the anti-corruption mantle. Both possess national recognition beyond regional confines. But in Nigeria’s political architecture, similarity breeds competition.
Ribadu’s proximity to Tinubu through the Office of the National Security Adviser gives him something invaluable: institutional relevance. Security oversight in Nigeria is not merely administrative; it intersects with political stability, electoral credibility, and elite negotiation. Visibility at that level elevates viability.
El-Rufai, by contrast, operates from outside federal executive power following his governorship. His influence remains substantial, but it requires recalibration. Without institutional leverage, narrative positioning becomes essential.
Thus, what appears as friction can be understood as succession signalling.
Rivalry as Pre-Primary Warfare
The northern bloc is often spoken of as unified. It is not. It is layered by generational shifts, patronage networks, and ideological distinctions.
Within that ecosystem: Atiku represents the legacy presidential structure. El-Rufai represents a combative reformist network. Ribadu represents institutional continuity under Tinubu’s umbrella.
Their coexistence guarantees tension.
Criticism directed at Ribadu, whether framed as policy disagreement or strategic skepticism, cannot be detached from the 2031 equation. Weakening his profile now reduces his consolidation later. Conversely, Ribadu’s sustained performance strengthens his claim as a bridge candidate capable of marrying southern incumbency to northern resurgence. The struggle is subtle because it is early. But it is real.
Tinubu as Kingmaker-in-Waiting
What makes this dynamic even more intricate is Tinubu’s own structural position.
If re-elected in 2027, Tinubu does not merely govern, he becomes the arbiter of succession. His second term would position him as kingmaker for 2031, intentionally or otherwise.
That reality intensifies the Ribadu-El-Rufai equation. Proximity to Tinubu matters. Distance from him can signal independence—or exclusion.
Thus, every appointment, every policy success or failure, every public disagreement carries layered meaning beyond governance. It feeds into a future endorsement calculus.
The War Within the War
Nigeria’s political moment is therefore not binary but triple-layered: The open contest — Tinubu versus opposition forces in 2027. The shadow campaign — Northern positioning for 2031. The internal rivalry — Competing northern networks pre-negotiating succession.
Ribadu’s trajectory is not merely about security management. El-Rufai’s positioning is not merely about dissent. Atiku’s persistence is not merely about ambition.
Each represents a faction within a broader northern recalibration.
Conclusion: The Future Is Already Under Construction
While Nigerians prepare to evaluate manifestos and performance ahead of 2027, the deeper choreography is already underway. Power in Nigeria is rarely about the immediate ballot; it is about timing, endurance, and alignment.
Tinubu’s fortress may hold. The opposition may recalibrate. But 2031 is already shaping alliances, testing loyalties, and sharpening rivalries.
The visible campaign will dominate headlines. The invisible contest will determine succession.
And within that invisible contest, the Ribadu–El-Rufai dynamic may well prove a defining subplot in the North’s struggle to decide not whether it returns to power but who carries its banner when it does.
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