Skip to main content

A PARTY DIVIDED IS A PARTY DEFEATED: A LOOK AT THE UNITED STATES NOMINATION PROCESS

 

The failure of the PDP in the 2015 Presidential election arose more from the syndrome of a divided party. When the newPDP broke away, arrogance did not allow the hawks around the President to give objective advice on the dangerous implication of that move. The result was a devastating failure of the party in power. Today, we are witnessing an advance replay with the Republican party nomination process in the United States. The question is no longer whether the Republican party will be torn apart by the 2016 nominating process but how badly hurt its presidential nominee will be and whether defeat in November will be inevitable.
The answer depends on the nominee and on the ultimate extent of the divide. But there is little reason for Republican optimism at this point, in spite of the fact that history has produced some very different outcomes.
Sometimes, a deep split in one party has produced a landslide for the other. In 1964, when the GOP was bitterly divided over ideology, nominee Barry Goldwater won only 38 percent of the vote and 52 electoral votes (compared to President Lyndon Johnson’s 486 electoral votes).
In 1912, the Republican Party actually fractured. Former President Teddy Roosevelt ran as a Progressive and carried six states with 88 electoral votes, while the GOP nominee, President William Howard Taft, carried just two States with eight electoral votes.
Other times, a party split looked disastrous but the election turned out to be competitive. In 1896, for example, the Democratic Party split between populists and conservatives (or silver Democrats and gold Democrats, if you prefer), ultimately nominating firebrand populist William Jennings Bryan. But he lost the election to William McKinley by only four points in what turned out to be a realigning election.
In 1968, Democrats were bitterly divided over the Vietnam War and civil rights, and the party’s Chicago convention looked more like a war zone than a political gathering. And yet, Democratic nominee Hubert Humphrey lost the presidential race to Republican Richard Nixon by less than a single percentage point, with George Wallace carrying five states.
Of course, each of these elections took place in a different context. But in all the instances the divided party lost.
What about this year? The current situation is not a perfect fit for any of the previous cases.
Democrats have held the White House for eight years, which usually gives the opposition an opportunity to play on voters’ fatigue with the incumbent’s party. The outgoing president has been a polarizing figure, but his poll numbers suggest a rough equality in the number of Americans who approve and who disapprove of his performance – certainly not a terrible position for the nominee of his party who hopes to succeed him.
Democrats clearly are divided over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who has her own primary problems. She has very high negatives, with a large chunk of Americans doubting her honesty, and her extensive political experience is both an asset and a liability. But at the end of the day, most Democrats will find Clinton acceptable and will rally around her nomination
Finally, November’s electorate will continue the trend of the past 30 years, growing less white and more Hispanic – all of which will favor the Democratic nominee, as does the Electoral College, though narrowly.
This year’s Republican divide looks wider and deeper than any divide since at least 1964.
Because of that – and barring a dramatic shift in public opinion or a GOP convention deadlock that produces a unifying nominee with broad appeal – the November election is more likely than not to hand the Democratic nominee the White House. And if the split in the Republican Party continues to grow, which is likely, November’s outcome could be a foregone conclusion even before the election.

With Extracts From Stuart Rothenberg




Comments

Popular posts from this blog

FEDERAL ALLOCATION TO THE TWENTY FIVE LOCAL GOVERNMENTS IN DELTA STATE IN 2023

Below Is The Federal Allocation To The Twenty five Local Government Areas in Delta State In 2023: Aniocha North:  ₦2,631,989,064.8 Aniocha South:  ₦2,847,788,192.94 Bomadi:               ₦2,491,779,057.87 Burutu:                 ₦3,367,885,422.51 Ethiope East:      ₦3,178,376,209.24 Ethiope West:     ₦3,226,505,207.54 Ika North East:   ₦3,279,681,589.37 Ika South:            ₦3,117,284,050.15 Isoko North:        ₦2,968,741,529.30 Isoko South:       ₦3,372,633,698.8 Ndokwa East:     ₦2,766,813,948.49 Ndokwa West:   ₦3,108,983,376.16 Okpe:                    ₦2,750,960,811.06 Oshimili North:  ₦2,683,889,807 Oshimili South: ₦2,890,887,684.18 Patani:                 ...

OBOREVWORI: How Not To Glorify A 'One Chance' Governor - By Zik Gbemre

It is appalling how, in desperation to sustain its thieving hegemony over the Delta State Government since 1999, the Delta PDP had the audacity to impose the weakest, most uninformed contender, a local champion, as Governor over a state replete with accomplished men and women of immense capacity. Given this unenviable privilege, one would have expected the fortunate placeholder governor, Sheriff Oborevwori—whose only election campaign manifesto was pledging to improve on the failed leadership of Ifeanyi Okowa, his predecessor—to engage creative minds and individuals of proven integrity to assist him in making a difference. Rather than doing the needful, Oborevwori has worsened matters by electing to engage the same spent leaders, deadwood, and gluttons that have gained prominence in running the state down over successive administrations. The result has been a government of mediocre officeholders competing to run the state for their pockets at the detriment of the populace, under a gove...

MOMENT OF HONOUR: Ughelli Agog As Ovie Omo-Agege Arrives Home

It was a day of honour for Obarisi Senator Ovie Omo-Agege, CFR, the immediate past Deputy President of the Senate, and Delta State governorship candidate of the All Progressives Congress, as the people of Delta State came together from all ethnic nationalities to collectively celebrate and honour him. The grand reception in the ancient city of Ughelli was historic, marking the recognition of a distinguished Deltan who has brought great honour to the state and its people. Obarisi, Senator Ovie Omo-Agege arrived Osubi Airport flanked by Distinguished Senator Peter Nwaoboshi, Hon. Eric Oharisi and Hon. Evance Iwhurie. The streets of Ughelli came alive with jubilation as the former Deputy Senate President and his entourage drove into town. It was a historic moment, characterized by the beating of drums, vibrant displays of cultural pride, and an overwhelming sense of camaraderie among the people. The air filled with chants of joy, and the atmosphere electric with excitement—all painting a ...