“The 2015 Presidential election is still difficult
to call, but the expectation of a narrow Jonathan win predicated on several
factors are now losing some saliency late in the campaign.
Chief
among them is the incumbency and financial advantages of the ruling Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP).
While this still helps Jonathan, its impact is blunted by the intensity of
support for Buhari, lackluster grassroots campaigning by the PDP, and new
anti-rigging measures by the electoral commission. New permanent voting cards
and card readers will sharply reduce the level of rigging seen in 2011, when
Jonathan beat Buhari in a landslide …
While it
was expected that the electoral map should favour Jonathan, current trends
suggest that the swing regions may side with Buhari, including the heavily-populated southwest around Lagos. That could be the decisive
demographic factor in the election …
Despite some important military gains against
[the Islamic terror group] Boko
Haram in the northeast, and a partial exoneration of
its oil revenue management in a recent PWC audit, The Peoples’
Democratic Party is starting to look desperate. … [But] it is not clear …
that Buhari has a strong political advantage.
In the next two weeks PDP needs to put its acts together, especially at the grassroots, particularly in the Southwest.
In the next two weeks PDP needs to put its acts together, especially at the grassroots, particularly in the Southwest.
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